Scenario

The reference context

The international scientific community is unanimously convinced that climate change is a genuine threat to future generations and that it is largely the result of human activity. This awareness is the result of the commitment, study and insight of many, including non-governmental organisations, governments, institutions and companies that over the past decades have joined together to create policies and concrete actions aimed at protecting the climate and the environment at a global level.

Starting from the first United Nations Conference on these issues, held in 1992 as part of the 'Earth Summit' in Rio de Janeiro, through the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the European 20-20-20 package in 2007, the Paris Agreement of 2015 on the reduction of harmful emissions, we have reached the European Green Deal in Europe, along with the implementation package "Fit for 55", up to the REPOwerEU.

In this evolving phase of its climate and environmental goals, Europe has decided to make its emission reduction target even more ambitious, moving from an initial target of a 40% cut in CO2 by 2030, compared to 1990 levels, to a new, more ambitious target of a 55% cut by 2030, to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2050.

To achieve this target, a gradual decarbonisation of the energy system is envisaged, as well as an increase in energy from renewable sources and the simultaneous elimination of coal. With ambitious and well-defined action plans, Europe has played a leading role in UN conferences against climate shift.

Not least because of the ongoing energy crisis triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, the outcomes of the last Conference of the Parties (COP 27) in Sharm El-Sheikh were not particularly encouraging. However, it emerged that the commitments already made in the world to date would make it possible to limit climate shift to within 2 °C by the end of the century, although the new safe threshold has been raised to 1.5 °C, and therefore new efforts and investments by states and new actions will be needed to achieve limiting the temperature rise to within 1.5 °C.

Despite contingent criticalities, the latest COP also confirmed the necessity of the energy transition path that states, citizens and companies will have to follow and that we at ERG – by vocation and commitment to the renewable energy sector – were among the first to undertake. As pioneers in the energy transition, we will continue to contribute to the achievement of international decarbonisation targets in an increasingly efficient manner.

A path that will require heavy investment and may also entail social costs. It will therefore be important to implement arrangements for a socially fair transition, so that no one is left behind. To hit the targets, it will be necessary to invest in technological innovation and to involve institutions, companies, governments and citizens in a shared design. With its experience, passion and determination, ERG will of course play its part.

It is now clear that sustainability must be at the heart not only of every company's strategies but also of governments. Already the G20 in Rome in October 2021 had identified its priorities in three pillars of sustainability: Planet, People and Prosperity.

As proof of the heightened sensitivity and sense of urgency shared by all citizens and political parties, on 8 February 2022 the Italian Parliament approved, by a large majority, the reform of the Constitution, introducing among its fundamental principles the protection of the environment, biodiversity and ecosystems, also in the interest of future generations (Article 9 of the Constitution). It was also stipulated that private economic initiative must not be in conflict with social utility and must not harm safety, freedom, human dignity, health and the environment.

The National Energy and Climate Plan – NECP

As already established in the Clean Energy Package adopted by the European Union in 2018, every Member State has committed to sending Brussels an Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INECP), proposing its path towards decarbonised energy production to 2030, in line with the overall targets of the Union. At the time, the final version of Italy's INECP has the following main objectives:

  • 30% share of energy from renewable sources in the gross final consumption of energy;
  • 22% share of energy from renewable sources in the gross final consumption of energy in transport;
  • 1.3% incremental annual share of energy from renewable sources in the gross final consumption of energy for heating and cooling (indicative);
  • Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions for sectors not covered by the Emission Trading System compared to 2005 emissions of at least 33%;
  • Electricity interconnection level with neighbouring states of at least 10%;
  • An indicative target of 55% for renewable energy as a percentage of gross final electricity consumption;
  • Confirmation of the planned withdrawal from coal-fuelled electricity generation by 2025.

The targets set in the INECPS, in Italy as in the other EU states, will have to be revised in the course of 2023, aligning them with the even more ambitious targets defined in the most recent EU packages called “Fit for 55” and “REPowerEU”.

REPowerEU

The European Commission's REPowerEU plan unveiled in May 2022 identifies renewables as the main remedy to the instability of energy supplies from abroad, the real culprits for the reckless increase of energy prices in the Old Continent.

Through REPowerEU, the EU institutions intend to make Europe more energy resilient and independent of Russian fossil fuels well before 2030. The main measures and actions proposed include:

  • Raising the European target for the share of renewable energy in gross energy consumption from 40% to 45% by 2030;
  • An installed photovoltaics target of 320 GW by 2025 and almost 600 GW by 2030.

Above all, European guidelines are envisaged to shorten and simplify authorisation procedures for both renewable energy plants and grid infrastructures within “go-to areas” with low environmental risk and which will therefore be characterised by half the authorisation time.